Worldwide Elections 2008 #4 - Zimbabwe

I think Mandela is a decent man forced by circumstance to do indecent things. He had numerous run ins with the ANC over differences in policy. It was Mandela who advocated a campaign of violence back in 1961. I believe he was right to do so, despite how ineffective it was at the time.

However the terrorist tactics undertaken by the ANC in later years, the necklass killings especially, coupled with Mbeki's misguided attempts to subvert the TRC (De Klerk too) and the ANC's dogged self exoneration caused any real credibility the ANC had to evaporate. In my eyes at least.

The two sane voices during this were Mandela, and Desmond Tutu. Mandela was never a politician, I think he was right to get out when he did, it may have been his stated view of being 'too old' but I'm sure he could see what was coming. In doing so he retained his integrity. He's a smart man.

Voting ends in Zimbabwe election - Yahoo! News UK

Biti (for Tsvangirai):
"There is absolutely no doubt we have won this election"

Mugabe (for himself):
"We will succeed. We will conquer"

Adding : "Why should I cheat? The people are there supporting us. The moment the people stop supporting you, then that's the moment you should quit politics ..."

Hmm ...

It seems the MDC have decided to claim 'victory' already. They may well be right but it's a premature move, one which may cause people to celebrate, exposing them to risk.

As expected there have been allegations of fraud. Regardless of his promise to do so, if Mugabe does lose outright despite his best efforts at fraud, I imagine he would be forced to step down, possibly at gunpoint. It will be interesting indeed if a run off is called. If that were to happen, the opposition would likely form a coalition to oust Mugabe.

Zimbabwe's opposition claims win on early results | World | Reuters

The ongoing delay in releasing more 'official' results by the ZEC is surely indicative of only one thing. Results for six constituencies have been released showing an even split between Mugabe and the MDC.

The question is, will Mugabe try to 'fix' it (probably too big a job to be in any way convincing), or simply ignore it. Is he trying to engineer a 'run off' allowing him time to 'regroup'? Will the delay provoke the MDC into making a full, unilateral declaration of victory? - giving him an excuse to deal with it as a de facto Coup D'etat in the hope this would allow him to sidestep the issue. It's hard to see this ending well.

The jig is up, it's time to step down, now, while he still can.

Mugabe defiant in face of electoral losses | World news | guardian.co.uk

This probably why they ordered 3 million more ballots than there are registered voters.

Indeed (even allowing for spoilage that's an insane overprint) and, why 8500 voters are registered to an empty plot, why stuffed ballott boxes appeared before voting had started ... etc.

I believe VP Joice Mujuru lost her seat, I wonder now if there's some heated behind the scenes machinations involving her husband, Makoni and the MDC going on. Preparations for a run off or even an outright Coup in the case of a narrow and blatantly rigged PF win.

While it would surely be poetic justice to see Mugabe forced from office at gunpoint, I don't think it would be in Zimbabwe's best interests to have other than a democratic regime change, even if it takes the little longer needed for a run off.

Events will unfold as they will, we're just spectators.

A time to hold your breath.

Yes. I can't help but think Mugabe is playing for a run off where MDC get 49.x%.

He knows what would likely happen were he to declare an outright win and may consider a run off gives him potential 'wiggle' room, either for a fix or to get his chosen 'heir' in place and seek to keep PF in power that way.

I'm sure he's also worried about being indicted for crimes against humanity but I doubt he'd live to see a trial.

I'm just speculating really.

It seems he engineered the figures just enough to get what he wanted, though it will do him no good. He will lose a run off.

Mugabe party sources concede loss of first round -or has it?

Zimbabwe's ruling party today privately conceded Robert Mugabe had lost the first round of the presidential election to the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.
But Mugabe's Zanu-PF party said a second round would be needed, according to Reuters, as Tsvangirai had failed to clinch the necessary 51% of the vote to win outright.

Two senior party sources said projections showed Tsvangirai with 48% of votes, Mugabe 43% and a third candidate, Simba Makoni, a former Mugabe loyalist, 8%.


"What this means is that we are looking at a rerun because he did not win with a margin of over 51%, which would have given him the job straight away," one of the sources told Reuters.


Zanu-PF's projections were close to the findings of an independent Zimbabwean election monitoring group. The US-funded Zimbabwe Election Support Network said its projections gave Tsvangirai 49.4%, Mugabe 41.8% and Makoni 8.2%.


It would appear there are.

Mugabe Aides Discuss Ceding Power

Although, naturally that's also been denied.

Zimbabwe opposition denies in talks on Mugabe exit

The writing is surely on the wall for Uncle Bob.

I do think there should still be a run off even if only to respect the democratic process, especially if that run off is the result of fraud within that process. However I suspect many Zimbabweans would rather see him step down than suffer a humiliating defeat, though I'm not sure how that would play constitutionally. Things have gone better than I'd expected so far, fingers crossed it stays that way.

Despite the terms now negative connotations, Zimbabwe is over due some gukurahundi. Or, perhaps a short but well targeted reprise of Operation Murambatsvina - either way, it's good riddance.

I think it's fairly clear that they have rigged or are rigging close run votes in out of the way places.

Maybe he is rigging or his aides are rigging a dignified loss so he can can walk away like Moi - wishful again I know.

Edit

Oh my - I may have called it right - BBC NEWS | World | Africa | Deal 'close' for Mugabe to leave

Here's hoping.

Hope indeed.

I don't know if it's wishful thinking. I voiced that this may have been his 'plan' (to play for a run off to either regroup or formulate an amenable exit strategy) yesterday after the extended delay in publishing results. I imagine the former option has since become untenable, partly because of the sheer scale of the rigging that would be needed to rig a run off, but mostly the simple fact that no-one would accept such a result anyway.

It's interesting that (as yet) no presidential vote details have been published. It will be interesting if the % figures match the estimates of myself and the ZESN.

However he leaves, I can't see how he could stay in Zimbabwe indefinitely, especially if they start digging up Matabeleland and asking too many questions about the events of 2005 (to name but two). Some of his Generals are up their neck in all this also.

Perhaps Beijing will offer him sanctuary.

Nah, my Chinese Masters have already bought everything worth having.

Not quite. They tried, but couldn't afford me.

I wonder if Emperor Bokassa's French villa might be available?

(or Napoleon's on St. Helena)

More delayed election results started trickling in on Thursday as crisis-stricken Zimbabwe anxiously awaited a leadership meeting expected to discuss the biggest challenge to President Robert Mugabe's 28-year rule.

Amid uncertainty over whether Mugabe will be able to hang on to power, authorities said results of elections to the senate, the upper house of parliament -- which must precede presidential results -- had been delayed by "logistical problems".

Logistical problems ... that's original.

More poll results come in for crisis-hit Zimbabwe - Yahoo! News UK